Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
