A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
